Piercing Into New York city
Flood Risk Affected Housing Market
Project Overview
01 / QUESTION
Six years after Superstorm Sandy, how is the housing market in flood zone areas doing? Does the flood risk impact them and their neighboring areas? What are the factors that impact the housing market in flood zone areas? Can we predict and identify the change in housing prices?
02 / TARGET
This study targets 1-3 family houses within New York City's five boroughs that are located in the 100 year flood zone areas. This study uses Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) legacy flood maps FIRM07, and the recently updates flood map PFIRM15.
03 / APPROACH
NYC census tracks will be used to group flood zone housing markets. We will use machine learning techniques to find important factors that impact housing market prices, and to cluster flood zones that have similar housing market trends and analyze the impacts of flood risk on neighborhoods in non-flood zone housing markets. We also developed a Kriging model to predict flood zone housing prices and identify property changes.
Flood Risk
New York City has longest coast line with flood risk in the country.In 2012, Super Storm Sandy flooded 17% of the city, and nearly 90,000 buildings were damaged.
OUR DATA
Our Processed Datasets:
6 years
5 New York Boroughs
465 Census Tracts
46291 Houses
500,000+ Demographical Data
RESULT
Plots
FEMA FIRM 07 (left) and updated FEMA Prelimenary PFIRM 15 (right) flood zone Census Tracts map
Mean price difference and its changing trend of the houses in FIRM07 flood map and in PFIRM15 map
House market trend of FIRM07 Flood Zone(Blue) and Newly Added Zones(Red) by PFIRM15
Census Tracts Changing House Value Clustering
Census Tracts House Price Changing Rate clustering
FIRM07 Housing Value Changing Spatial Clustering Map
PFIRM15 Census Tracts Changing House Value Clustering Spatial Map
PFIRM15 Housing Value Changing Rate Spatial Clustering Map
Possible Sandy Housing Price Impact Clustering
Kriging prediction
Kriging Steps
1. Create 2016 Market Value Basemap
2. Update Basemap with 2016 New Sales Points
3. Use Updated Map Value to compare with New Sales 2017
4. Property Change Analysis
Interaction Map
ABOUT US
New York City Planning - Sponsor
Allan Zaretsky - New York City Planner
New York university - mentor
Prof. Neil Kleiman - New York University
NYU CUSP TEAM
Hans He P.E., P.M.P.- New York University
Chenrui Zhang - New York University
Yu Chen - New York University
